El bitcoin tiene todos los motivos para continuar con su rally alcista durante el resto de esta semana, desde la inversión de 1.500 millones de dólares de Tesla hasta la consideración de Twitter de mantenerlo. Sin embargo, la criptodivisa estrella está bajando.

El tipo de cambio BTC/USD se corrigió bruscamente después de alcanzar su máximo histórico de 42.000 dólares el martes, lo que apunta a un aumento del sentimiento de recogida de beneficios entre los daytraders. Hasta el jueves, el par había bajado más de un 8,5 por ciento desde su máximo local, aunque manteniendo su sesgo alcista a largo plazo.

Su corrección coincidió en gran medida con una caída en el índice de dominancia de Bitcoin, una métrica que calcula la cuota de mercado de Bitcoin frente a todo el mercado de criptodivisas, que incluye activos digitales de gran capitalización como Ethereum, XRP, Binance Coin y Cardano. El martes, el índice alcanzó el 64,76 por ciento. El jueves bajó al 61,48%.

Las razones fueron visibles en el rendimiento del mercado de altcoins esta semana. El token nativo de la cadena de bloques Cardano, ADA, subió hasta un 23% frente al Bitcoin. DOT, de Polkadot, subió también más del 9%. Mientras tanto, AVAX de Avalanche saltó a las filas superiores al subir más del 118 por ciento.

En general, el mercado de altcoins ha sumado 79.500 millones de dólares esta semana para elevar la valoración del mercado de criptodivisas por encima de los 1,4 billones de dólares. El bitcoin perdió unos 77.000 millones de dólares desde su máximo local, calculado a partir de su capitalización de mercado récord de 897.900 millones de dólares. Esto refleja un mayor grado de reorganización de la cartera en el espacio de las criptodivisas.

HISTÓRICAMENTE ALCISTA

El Bitcoin tiene un historial de grandes correcciones después de registrar repuntes parabólicos. En muchos casos, los operadores sacaron su capital de la criptomoneda insignia. Los colocaron en rivales de altcoin sobrevendidos, lo que condujo a la llamada altseason. Una vez que las altcoins marcaron sus máximos, los operadores volvieron a entrar en el mercado de Bitcoin para reanudar su rally.

Más aún, el repunte del mercado de altcoins afecta sobre todo a los proyectos que compiten con Ethereum. Las tarifas de la segunda mayor blockchain han aumentado sustancialmente tras su carrera alcista. Eso está empujando a muchos especuladores a salir de los mercados de Ethereum para apostar por sus rivales, como Avalanche, Matic, Celo y muchas otras plataformas de contratos inteligentes.

El coste de comprar un token de Ethereum ha bajado un 6,58% desde su máximo histórico de 1.839 dólares.

¿QUÉ ES LO SIGUIENTE PARA EL BITCOIN?

En particular, las tarifas de Ethereum deben bajar para reducir la especulación en otros mercados. A su vez, eso podría limitar las bajadas de Bitcoin a corto plazo, ya que la criptodivisa sigue manteniendo el soporte por encima de su media móvil exponencial 20-4H (la onda verde en el gráfico de abajo).

Los fundamentos siguen siendo favorables. El martes, el presidente de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, admitió que la economía estadounidense no se había dado cuenta del impacto total de la pandemia de coronavirus en los mercados laborales. Añadió que la Fed tendría que continuar con sus medidas dovish para garantizar el máximo empleo en el futuro.

„Esperamos que sea apropiado mantener el actual rango objetivo acomodaticio del tipo de los fondos federales hasta que las condiciones del mercado laboral hayan alcanzado niveles consistentes con el máximo empleo y la inflación haya subido al 2% y esté en camino de superar moderadamente el 2% durante algún tiempo“, declaró el Sr. Powell.
Se espera que esto aleje a los inversores del efectivo y de los activos de mayor riesgo y que vuelvan a refugiarse en activos seguros como el oro y el bitcoin. La inversión de Tesla en la criptomoneda sirve ahora de referencia para que otras empresas puedan explorar activos de reserva alternativos para proteger sus balances de la „devaluación del dólar“.

El miércoles, el director financiero de Twitter, Ned Segal, dijo que podrían cambiar sus reservas en dólares por Bitcoin.

Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin for the 1st time in terms of total fees generated over the year.

Ethereum generated nearly $ 600 million in fees during the year 2020, which is 83% more than Bitcoin.

This is the highest annual fee total ever seen on a blockchain platform.

While Bitcoin has already passed its old record high of 2017 handily, Ethereum is still trying to climb back to its peak of $ 1,448. That said, it now looks like Ethereum is bouncing back, crushing Bitcoin in terms of transaction fees generated.

Determining the underlying value of a blockchain-based network can be complicated, especially when it doesn’t have traditional assets to help guide its valuation. That said, the transaction fees generated can be a solid indicator of network activity.

Classify the Ethereum network through its fees

For the first time in its history, Ethereum generated a total of fees greater than that of Bitcoin , by a significantly greater margin. According to Glassnode, an on-chain market analysis firm, Ethereum users spent 83% more on total network fees than on Bitcoin.

According to a tweet from Glassnode CTO Rafael Schultze-Kraft: “In 2020, Ethereum overtook Bitcoin in terms of network fees. Users spent nearly $ 600 million in fees on the Ethereum network last year, 83% more than on Bitcoin ”.

In 2020, Ethereum even managed to outperform Bitcoin network fees during its meteoric rise to its previous record in 2017.

A very different landscape

In 2019, Ethereum generated less than $ 50 million in transaction fees. Even in 2018, the year it hit its all-time high, Ethereum generated just over $ 150 million in fees.

How then to explain this drastic increase in the total value of transaction fees on the Ethereum network?

The arrival of decentralized finance ( DeFi ) and decentralized applications ( dApps ) is proving to be one of the main factors contributing to this increase.

At the end of 2019, well under $ 1 billion in total value was locked in DeFi apps, which mostly run on the Ethereum network. These applications allow financial transactions such as loans, insurance and trading operations to be carried out without having to resort to a third party. This allows for much more competitive rates and returns more value to the user.

At the end of 2020, the total value locked in in DeFi stood at over $ 16 billion, a growth of over 2,500%. This massive increase in the use of DeFi applications, due to platforms like UniSwap and MakerDao , has led to a sharp increase in fees on the Ethereum network.

This has advantages and disadvantages. On the one hand, this rise indicates a sharp increase in the use of the platform, but it also underlines the extremely high fees that users have to pay to complete transactions.

Bitcoin (BTC) and gold: The two are often compared in terms of the store of value. Both assets can be used to store value. Bitcoin is easier to transport and sell, but its price is more volatile. Gold is the traditional save haven, but not as dynamic as Bitcoin. The picture shows a Bitcoin in front of gold pieces.
Investment banking giant JPMorgan has given a long-term Bitcoin price forecast of over $146,000. This price target for BTC is based on the now widely held belief that the leading cryptocurrency will gain popularity as an alternative to gold.

Strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note on Monday:

Displacing gold as an ‚alternative‘ currency implies a large upside potential for Bitcoin in the long run. Bitcoin’s [current] market capitalisation of around $575 billion would need to increase 4.6-fold – at a theoretical Bitcoin price of $146,000 – to match Bitcoin Lifestyle review total private sector investment in gold via exchange-traded funds or bars and coins.

Bitcoin rate forecast, BTC rate, bitcoin forecast
Bitcoin-gold ratio sees a new high. Source: Bloomberg.
However, analysts argued that bitcoin’s price volatility needs to fall for institutions to make large allocations. The convergence of bitcoin and gold volatility is a „multi-year process“ and suggests that the $146,000-plus target is a long-term goal, according to JPMorgan.

A short-term bitcoin price of $50,000 – $100,000 is not sustainable, it said
The Bitcoin price surged 300% to $29,000 in 2020 and extended its gains to a new record price of $34,420 in the first three days of the new year. The cryptocurrency has gained more than 160% in the last three months alone, helped by increased institutional participation.

While the crypto community expects the rally to continue, JPMorgan sees signs of „speculative mania“ and believes further large gains towards the $50,000-$100,000 region may not be sustainable in the near term.

Nevertheless, even former die-hard Bitcoin opponents seem to increasingly agree that BTC will more strongly substitute gold in the future. This would of course give the Bitcoin price immense upside potential in the long run.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the analyst at JPMorgan, already drew attention to himself in mid-December when he published that a paradigm shift in the investment policy of large institutions and family offices is imminent. According to him, the growing acceptance of Bitcoin is increasingly leading institutional investors to invest part of their portfolios in Bitcoin. This, however, is happening to the detriment of gold, as the allocation to the precious metal is decreasing.

Literally, the JPMorgan analyst said:

The adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors has only just begun. For gold, on the other hand, adoption is well advanced. If my assumption is correct in the medium to long term, the gold price would suffer massively from this changeover.

Bitcoin, brighter than 24 carats – 2020 has been an extremely colorful year for Bitcoin (BTC). From the worst fears of the coronavirus crisis that briefly caused every market on the planet to collapse, to the current strong bullish move in BTC that has pushed it past its former highs, the emotional roller coaster we have offered the king of cryptos have been significant this year. However, one thing has clearly changed: the vision of institutions on Corona Millionaire.

Bitcoin more coveted than gold as a safe haven?

After the anxiety crisis and the crash generated by the Covid-19 in March 2020, the various markets – stock markets and cryptos in particular – have recovered fairly quickly and well.

In the first months that followed, gold was the first safe haven that gave a signal in the face of massive monetary first impressions decided by governments, in an attempt to counter the economic effects of the Coronavirus crisis.

From the summer of 2020, the gold metal has effectively beaten its old highs , even passing above the symbolic 2,000 dollars an ounce (31.1 g).

However, a new store of value , even more prized than the precious metal, will emerge thereafter. This is of course the bitcoin invented by Satoshi Nakamoto.

Big companies, institutions, billionaires: they all want to protect themselves with Bitcoin

From September 2020, this movement was largely initiated by the company MicroStrategy and its CEO Michael Saylor . With the purchase of tens of thousands of bitcoins , the company listed on the Nasdaq and its leader wanted to provide themselves with a “cash alternative” to protect themselves from a possible fall in the US dollar .

And if we believe the excellent performance of Grayscale funds , they are far from the only ones. Eh yes ! These crypto investment funds are all particularly intended for institutional investors , apart from the quantity of crypto-assets under management of Grayscale have been increasing steadily in recent months, by billions of dollars .

Here too, Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven is mentioned in the face of the risk of government fiat currencies being devalued by rampant inflation .

This is also the opinion shared by many billionaires : from Paul Tudor Jones to Ricardo Salinas Pliego , via Chamath Palihapitiya and many others. Everyone wants to protect themselves against the hyperinflation of fiat currencies, thanks to Bitcoin.

The world has changed in many ways this year 2020, and so has Bitcoin. The king of cryptos seems to have earned his stripes of store of value, like gold, with the prospect of returns deemed higher than those of gold metal.

The current behavior of the Bitcoin miners is to accumulate their crypt coins in order to speculate with the existing high demand.

According to data from the analysis firm Glassnode, the Bitcoin miners are more determined to hoard than to sell their coins. This fact contrasts dramatically with the previous increases. When the price of BTC rose exponentially, the miners proceeded to liquidate their crypt coins at the exchanges.

As we know, the miners are among the main determinants of the price of the leading cryptomoney. That is, when the miners sell their Bitcoin Trader in large quantities, the price drops. The same thing happens in the opposite direction, when the miners hoard their coins, the value of the currency tends to rise.

Last year, 2019, when the price of Bitcoin reached $14,000, the miners‘ sales were massive. The same is true for the, until recently, biggest upward run of the currency in 2017, when BTC reached very close to $20,000 per unit. At that time, the mass sale caused the collapse of the value.

Will miners make Bitcoin take off for the moon?

Miners Show More Interest in Saving Their Bitcoin Possessions

The fact that the Bitcoin miners are now showing more interest in preserving their currencies keeps the upward flame burning. Now the pattern of Bitcoin sales by the digital farmers, although higher in quantity, in proportion is still much lower than the sales of other raises.

Here the classic law of supply and demand comes into play in a „chemically pure“ way. If the miners do not sell more than is necessary for their operating expenses (purchase of equipment, electricity, maintenance, rentals, among others), a supply constraint is created that promotes price increases.

In previous years, this also often happened, but the absence of large investors increased the volatility. In that sense, the miners, in order to take advantage of the fleeting rises, proceeded to liquidate their Bitcoins before the price dropped, which made the price drop an almost natural phenomenon.

The big difference now is that the scarcity of currencies is combined with the voracious demand for them by large investors. Among them, institutional investors, who buy Bitcoin per minute in large quantities. Thus, the growing demand for Bitcoin creates the psychological feeling of savings among miners.
The graphs show that when the price of Bitcoin approaches its historical highs, it causes massive sales by the miners. Source: GlassnodeThe graphs show that when the price of Bitcoin approaches its historical highs, it triggers massive sales by miners.

MicroStrategy could liquidate your Bitcoin holdings overnight

Demand does not show signs of relaxing

What’s important in this case, where the Bitcoin miners are particularly thrifty, is that the coin claimants won’t let up on the pressure. Recently, MicroStrategy announced a new million dollar coin purchase without waiting for the price to drop, which indicates that demand, far from decreasing, will increase in 2021. This makes speculation one of the miners‘ favorite fashions for taking advantage of high currency prices in the future.

During 2020, institutional investors, paid large sums to buy Bitcoin. Initially, this came about as a defense mechanism against the dangers of an unprecedented devaluation in the price of the US dollar.

However, now with the outrageous profits by MicroStrategy and other firms, the demand for Bitcoin has become more attractive.

Facts to Consider

Increasing demand for crypto-currency has made Bitcoin miners inclined towards speculation.
While there is less supply of bitcoins in the market, contrasted with a growing demand, the price of the currency remains high.
In the past, when the price of Bitcoin went up, miners made mass sales to take advantage of the gains before it went down.
Bitcoin’s maturity in 2020, along with the great results for companies and investors, has created a prolonged upward trend.

Während Bitcoin für die meisten Investoren vor diesem Jahr die erste Anlaufstelle war, schenken im Jahr 2020 immer mehr Menschen Ethereum als eigenständigem Unternehmen Aufmerksamkeit, sagte Michael Sonnenshein, Geschäftsführer von Grayscale Investments LLC.

„Im Laufe des Jahres 2020 sehen wir eine neue Gruppe von Investoren, die Ethereum an erster Stelle und in einigen Fällen nur Ethereum sind“, sagte Sonnenshein in einem Interview mit Bloomberg. „Es gibt eine wachsende Überzeugung in Bezug auf Ethereum als Anlageklasse“, sagte Sonnenshein in einem Interview mit Bloomberg. Grayscale ist im Besitz der Muttergesellschaft von CoinDesk, der Digital Currency Group.

DeFi hat Ethereum seit diesem Sommer einen bedeutenden Aufschwung gegeben, und die Blockkette startete ihre Reise zu Eth 2.0, nachdem sie Anfang dieses Monats ihre Signalkette gestartet hatte.

„Die Entwicklung der Anlageklasse hat sich weiter gefestigt“, sagte Sonnenshein. „Ethereum hat sich in die gleiche Richtung entwickelt wie das Stehvermögen von Bitcoin“.

Die Meinungen darüber, ob die Heimatwährung von Ethereum, Äther (ETH), zu einem noch umstritteneren Konkurrenten der Anlageklasse Bitcoin werden könnte, gehen weit auseinander.

„Institutionelle Anleger kaufen Bitcoin für die Erzählung des digitalen Goldes“, sagte Ryan Watkins, Senior Research Analyst bei Messari, zuvor gegenüber CoinDesk. „Äther ist einfach noch nicht in diesem Gespräch.“

Ether „profitiert vom Spillover und hat wahrscheinlich mehr Gesprächsstoff von Krypto-Natives um sich herum“, sagte Vishal Shah, Gründer der Derivatebörse Alpha5, in einem früheren Interview mit CoinDesk. „Für den Uneingeweihten ist [es] schwer zu erkennen, dass Bitcoin nicht der einzige Ausweg ist.

Wenn Ethereum als Anlageklasse mehr Aufmerksamkeit bei den Anlegern erregt, hätte das ganz andere Gründe. Die Blockkette strebt danach, der „Welt-Computer“ zu sein, der ein umfassendes Ökosystem für dezentrale Anwendungen bietet, während Bitcoin als eine aufstrebende Anlageklasse behandelt wurde.

„Ich habe immer gedacht, dass dieser digitale Asset-Raum riesig ist – und es geht nicht nur um Bitcoin – weil es für verschiedene Dinge unterschiedliche Anwendungen geben wird“, sagte Raoul Pal, CEO und Mitbegründer des Finanzmedienkonzerns Real Vision, in seinem jüngsten Dokumentarfilm. „Ich denke, dass die beiden [Bitmünze und Äther] eine sehr schöne kombinierte Vermögensallokation haben“.

Det senaste Bitcoin- rallyet var bra, även om vi inte slog 16 000 dollar eller gick utöver det. Detta var en välbehövlig pump efter den efterlängtade Bitcoin- halveringen och Black Thursday-kraschen tillbaka i mars. En intressant avhämtning från rallyt, om man skulle titta närmare, var dock identiteten på vem som hjälpte till nämnda rally.

Ännu viktigare, vem körde det senaste rallyet?

Var det detaljhandeln? Högvärdiga individer? Institutioner?

En sak som måste förstås här är att Bitcoin Billionaire till stor del är en detaljhandelsmarknad och därmed kommer detaljhandeln alltid att vara en kraft som måste tas i beaktande. Även om detaljhandeln har spelat sin roll verkar detta rally ha drivits av höga nettovärden individer, med samma bekräftas med hjälp av on-chain data.

Bitcoin genomsnittlig överföringsvolym

Bitcoins genomsnittliga överföringsvolym mäter exakt vad det står, det genomsnittliga värdet som överförs på kedjan.

På senare tid har detta ökat kraftigt och pekat på att fler och fler deltagare kommer in. Eftersom detta inte bara är det totala värdet som överförs på kedjan, ger denna mätning en känsla av typen av investerare – personer med högt nätverk.

Diagrammet visar att användarnas aktivitet ökade snabbt under den senaste tidens marknadsstegring.

Andel investerare

Det bifogade diagrammet belyser de nya investerarna som kommer in på marknaden. Att lägga till denna information till ovanstående visar att dessa investerare är helt nya, vilket innebär att nya pengar kommer in på marknaden.

Båda dessa mätvärden informerar om hur den senaste rallyn inte var en lycka, eftersom den stöddes av volym och stöds av riktiga, on-chain data.

När man också överväger att minska ETF-aktierna i guld och öka ETF-aktierna i gråskala kommer allt tillbaka, en hel krets i sig.

Intressant nog observerades detsamma i en ny JP Morgan-rapport, en som hävdade att människor skulle lämna guld-ETF: er för Bitcoin.

„… Denna kontrast stödjer tanken att vissa investerare som tidigare investerat i #guld-ETF: er som familjekontor kan titta på #bitcoin som ett alternativ till guld.“